Albert Pujols homers off Brad Lidge
Many pencils have been snapped in half, and many cabana shirts ruffled, in the fret-mongering which has accompanied this so-called sabermetrics thing. So, too, have certain statistics become haplessly passe, relegated to the same corners of Americana where rotary telephones and record players elicit warm memories but little actual use.
The RBI is one of those statistics. By now, criticizing the Run Batted In is relatively cliched: it’s a comfortable realization, that RBIs are really a measure of a bunch of things that are totally out of control of the hitter. He can’t account for whether or not the guys in front of him reached base. He can only try to get a hit, and he will only be successful a small fraction of the time at that. He’s not trying harder when there are guys on – or he shouldn’t be, at the very least. A batter will get a hit of some sort based on some ethereal probability function, and if there happen to be other batters occupying bases, they stand a good chance of being knocked in. That’s what RBI tend to measure: a batter, in a very indirect way, through the productivity of those around him.
Still, there are many who tend to think via a more bullheaded sort of logic: if you drive in your teammates, you are by definition being productive, so it’s perfectly reasonable that how many teammates you drive in is equal to how productive you are. This isn’t entirely inaccurate, since good hitters will tend to knock in their teammates more often than bad hitters, but it misses the point. A guy who gets a leadoff double is probably doing more than his teammate who comes along and singles him in, and to measure by individual runs and RBIs is to needlessly obfuscate this fact.
That said, it’s still interesting to look at who’s been knocking guys in, because yes, these players do tend to be among the best in the game. What follows is a list of RBI shares, or the percentage of a team’s total Runs Batted In that a player is responsible for — and the players are, of course, all stars. But the gradations and the rankings are not what you’d logically expect, and it’s interesting to postulate on why, exactly, they end up like they do here. The simple answer is that there happen to be guys on base when they get hits. The more complicated answers? I don’t know. Maybe they’re below. Maybe they’re not. You tell me.
Numbers 1-5:
1. Albert Pujols, St. Louis (70 RBI, 22.01%): Was there ever any doubt in your mind? There is little to write about Albert Pujols, who is the best hitter in the game and could finish his career as one of the best hitters of all time, that hasn’t already been said. His status atop this list is not a testament to his prime spot in a productive lineup, it is a spot he himself has earned alone. Pujols has 70 RBI, which is more than anyone else in baseball, and 32 more than Ryan Ludwick, the team’s second-best run producer. His 26 homers, also the most in baseball, are 15 more than Ludwick has. It’s almost unfair to the Cardinals to point out how much better Pujols is than everyone else in that lineup, because he’s better than anyone else in baseball period, but it’s true. No matter who you think the Cardinals’ second-best hitter this year has been — Ludwick, Rasmus, Schumaker — he hasn’t really been all that good. Pujols is positively scary, and he’s the reason that St. Louis is in first place in the NL Central right now. Even if you think you’re paying attention to him right now, pay more attention. You will not see another like him.
2. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee (68 RBI, 20.36%): Prince Fielder might never again reach the 50-homer plateau, something he did as a big-league sophomore in 2007, but that doesn’t mean he’s getting worse as a player. Still just 25 years old, Fielder is quietly having an excellent season in Milwaukee, batting .301 with 18 homers in 72 games for the Brewers. The svelte 1B is posting a career-best walk rate of almost 17% and looks to be developing a more discerning eye at the plate. Lefties gave him fits last year (.239), but he’s dramatically improved his splits against them. He leads the Majors in Win Probability Added. Fielder has made good on the productivity that has surrounded him all year – guys like Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Ryan Braun. Even Craig Counsell (taking over for Weeks) and Mike Cameron have been decent in their roles. The Brewers bought out his ‘09 and ‘10 arbitration seasons for a combined total of $18 million, and they got a deal.
3. Jason Bay, Boston (69 RBI, 18.80%): Remember when Jason Bay was no sure thing to be able to handle Boston’s hectic environment? Neither do opposing pitchers. Bay’s timing is impeccable: he’s in line for a career year in 2009, which, in the middle of Boston’s lineup, allows him to rack up all sorts of nifty counting stats (his 69 RBI are second only to Pujols). It’s all the more impressive that Bay didn’t miss a beat when David Ortiz spent most of the season’s first half hitting like Pokey Reese. Bay assumed Top Dog status in Boston’s lineup without blinking, and it’s not the Fenway Effect: his OPS is 100 points higher on the road than it is at home. He’s hitting righties, lefties, and is slugging .703 with runners in scoring position. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, and Lowell have all posted very strong seasons — time and time again, they’ve been on for Bay, and Bay has delivered, helping keep Boston in first place in the East.
Adrian Gonzalez
e4. Adrian Gonzalez (47 RBI, 17.67%): Adrian Gonzalez is perhaps the most underrated and underappreciated offensive player in baseball. His .275/.417/.599 line is impressive enough before you consider that it’s been protected by Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff, who while combined have hit 17 homers on the year, they are also batting just .236 and striking out in 25% of their at-bats. Gonzalez is also posting just a .256 Batting Average on Balls in Play, though that may be partially deflated by the fact that 24 of his hits have never technically entered the field of play. Those 24 homers are second to only Albert Pujols, and Gonzalez plays half his games at Petco, the Majors’ toughest park to hit homers in (16 road HR, 8 home HR). David Eckstein, who hits before him, has a .329 OBP, and that’s not even the worst they did to AG. Through the end of May, the Padres inexplicably led off with either Brian Giles or Jody Gerut, neither of whom could manage to get on base at even a .300 clip. They’ve plugged Tony Gwynn Junior into the leadoff hole in June, and he’s responded by posting a .420 OBP; getting some runners on base in front of Gonzalez will help recover at least some small amount of his incredible value, which is mostly wasted on this woeful ballclub. He has the fewest RBI (47) on this list, but it’s not for lack of trying; he is simply not deriving any value from his spot in the lineup. Oh, and he’s making just $3 million this year. Think the Marlins — who traded him away as a minor leaguer in ‘03 for Ugueth Urbina — would like a do-over?
5. Mark Reynolds (53 RBI, 17.49%): Mark Reynolds strikes out a lot. A whole lot. In 2008, he became the only player in Major League history to strike out 200 times in a season. Think about that. He’s the only person to have ever done that in history. He’s locking horns with Chris Davis (TEX) for the rights to break that record again this year. It’s as much a part of his identity as is the fact that he is from Kentucky and plays the field with shoes made of bricks. So severe are the shortcomings in his game that he would probably not even be in the Majors were it not for the fact that he is also preternaturally inclined to hit ludicrous, prodigious home runs when he squares up the baseball. Reynolds average Standard Distance for his home runs (or the distance the ball would travel from plate to ground in a neutral environment) is 415 feet, tying him with Ryan Howard for 8th-farthest in the Majors. His 21 homers are matched by a .269 batting average, which for Reynolds is almost comically high and will certainly not persist. Only the aforementioned Chris Davis swings and misses more often than him, and Davis is batting .209 with just 6 fewer homers. He’s hitting just .247 with RISP and 9 of his homers have come with the bases empty, so his production has simply been extremely consistent.
Numbers 6-10:
6. Justin Morneau (58 RBI, 17.37%): Your 2006 AL MVP would be joined on this list by the slick-hitting Joe Mauer (.395/.465/.697) but for Mauer’s lack of April plate appearances. Morneau and Mauer have been a prodigious pair at the heart of the Minnesota lineup, which has been quietly productive, rounded out by strong years from Michael Cuddyer and Denard Span, who has taken over leadoff duties for the Twins and posted a .388 OBP.
7. Brandon Phillips (48 RBI, 16.78%): After years of striking out twice as much as he walked, Phillips, the game’s model late bloomer, has finally begun to reverse the trend. His K/BB is an even 1.00 in 2009; Cincinatti’s offense is not very good, but Phillips’ approach has allowed him to be successful in spite of the unimpressive cogs surrounding him as of late.
8. Adam Dunn (50 RBI, 16.61%): Adam Dunn waited a very long time to get a deal this past offseason, and he finally went where the biggest dollop of cash was: $20 million for two years in a Washington Natinals uniform. The pitching’s been much more embarrassing; Dunn at least has Ryan Zimmerman down there, and Nick Johnson has quietly been quite good in the time he’s played. A sixth straight 40+ HR season is very much in reach, especially if he starts hitting at home (.774 OPS).
9. Raul Ibanez (59 RBI, 16.53%): He has either been talked about too much or too little this year; the Phillies were roundly criticized for jumping the gun and giving the aging Ibanez a three-year deal, but they smelled blood in the water. For $6.5m in 2009, he’s been a revelation in that lineup, helping pace the Phils as they try to get back to the World Series. He hasn’t even been in a typical “prime” RBI spot, spending most of his time at #6 while Ryan Howard (#11 on this list) bats cleanup.
Torii Hunter: Production Nothing New
10. Torii Hunter (54 RBI, 16.36%): Torii Hunter has spent most of the first half hitting cleanup for the Angels in Vlad’s absence, and did not disappoint. The 13-year veteran posted a .915 OPS as the #4 batter, and has shifted to #3 now that Vlad is returned. He’ll continue to produce with the bat — and the glove — the way he always has, and perhaps always will.
Numbers 11-20:
11. Ryan Howard (57 RBI, 15.97%)
12. Jose Lopez (42 RBI, 15.73%)
13. Bengie Molina (41 RBI, 15.65%)
14. Carlos Lee (43 RBI, 15.47%)
15. Paul Konerko (46 RBI, 15.38%)
16. Evan Longoria (61 RBI, 15.29%)
17. Ryan Braun (51 RBI, 15.27%)
18. Mark Teixeira (57 RBI, 15.16%)
19. Lance Berkman (42 RBI, 15.11%)
20. Aubrey Huff (47 RBI, 15.06%)
