Playoff time tends to turn baseball on its head a little bit.  After an arduous marathon of a season where the league’s most talented teams usually filter to the top, the best-of-the-best suddenly are decided by short five and seven game series.  The Blue Jays and Orioles may play each other 18 times a year, but when it comes down to deciding if the Phillies are better than the Brewers, hell, let’s just play five and move on.

I’m not suggesting any sort of change, of course.  Not only is there no practical way to “reform” – if such a word is even proper – the system of deciding who’s the best, but there also really isn’t even a need for it.  For all of the logical appeal of tests which are long and thorough, there’s something to be said for the fact that if you’re really the best, you should be expected to be able to summon the skills that brought you there when you really need them the most.  There’s always flukes (see: 2007 New York Giants), but for the most part, the logic holds.  It’s the playoffs: put up or shut up.

Still, there’s always the thought that anything could happen: someone gets hot at the right time, a key player is banged up, and voila, the Wild Card team is standing in the winners’ circle.  The trophy’s not given to the team with the best regular season record, it’s given to the team that wins a few short series against the best teams in the game.  With such a small sample size, there’s an indisputable element of chance – some might say randomness – in how this sort of thing is decided.

With that, I thought it’d be a fun exercise to do a playoff forecast using the sturdiest decider of outcomes known to man: the coin.  For each postseason game, I flipped a quarter, Heads representing the Home team and Tails the Away team.  It’s about as simple a simulation as you can come up with, and while it is decidedly brainless in nature, if it’s truly the case that any of these teams could win, flipping a coin may in fact be a somewhat reasonable prediction tool.  Probably not though.

As a refresher, four teams from each league make the playoffs.  Division Series are best of five (2-2-1) while Championship Series and the World Series are best of seven (2-2-1-1-1).

Here’s how the miniature World Series shook out in my living room:

ALDS: Red Sox (96-67) vs. ANGELS (100-62)
THTHH: Angels in 5.

Despite winning Game 1 on the road behind an impressive start from Jon Lester – who furthers his credentials as a post-season ace – the Boston offense sputters absent meaningful contributions from Drew and Lowell, who appear gimpy.   The Angels win a crucial Game 3 at Fenway Park against a less-than-100% Josh Beckett, and clinch an ALCS berth with a Game 5 win at home, ending a series that many consider somewhat boring.

NLDS: Brewers (90-72) vs. PHILLIES (92-70)
HTHH: Brewers in 4.

Another year, another disappointing postseason for the Phils: after being swept out of contention by last year’s NL Team of Destiny, they fall victim to a similar fate in 2008.  Cole Hamels beats Yovani Gallardo in Philadelphia as the series kicks off, but Sabathia evens the series in Game 2 before the Phillies’ rotation depth proves inadequate and the Brewers win both games at home, carried by the red-hot Ryan Braun.  Jimmy Rollins, who finishes the series 2-13 (two singles), is pilloried by the local media.  Brad Lidge never sees a save situation, but pitches well in his spare innings of work.

ALDS: White Sox (88-74) vs. RAYS (97-65)
HTTT: Rays in 4 .

Hardball pundits spin the White Sox’ road to the postseason as a negative, an extra-harrowing journey that may have extracted a bit too much energy from the Southsiders.  They’re right.  The rotation is all out of sorts, and despite a Game 2 win (Kazmir pitches well, but the bullpen coughs up an L), the White Sox can’t really put any momentum together at all.  Carl Crawford’s return gives an added boost to the already-potent Rays lineup.

NLDS: Dodgers (84-78) vs. CUBS (97-64)
HHHT: Cubs in 4.

After Lowe and Dempster post matching solid starts, Game 1 goes into extras, where the Cubs score a huge walk-off win at home behind an Alfonso Soriano homer.  The loss rattles the Dodgers, who are totally shut down by Carlos Zambrano in Game 2.  The Dodgers score a win at home in Game 3 once Harden is out of the picture, but lose a close Game 4, as Ted Lilly gets the job done in spacious Dodger Stadium.

ALCS: Rays (97-65) at ANGELS (100-62)
HTTTTTT: Angels in 6.

The Angels eat Kazmir up in Game 1, but the Rallyin’ Rays come right back the next day and even the series at one apiece.  Heading back to Tampa, the young Rays suffer two crushing home defeats, unable to mount comebacks off a lights-out Angels bullpen that has all the answers to Joe Maddon’s lineup changes. Mark Teixeira and Vlad Guerrero team up to hand Kazmir his second loss in as many tries against the squad.  A Game 5 victory gives the Rays hope (Evan Longoria provides the dramatics), but they lose Game 6, tragically going 0-3 at the Trop to end a storybook season and a wild series in which the away team won all but one game.

NLCS: Brewers (90-72) at CUBS (97-64)
TTHH: Brewers in 4.

Cub Clobberer?  The Cubs line Zambrano up to start Game 1 at home, but the Brewers lead the game off with back-to-back bombs; frustrated, Zambrano loses his cool and can’t regain composure.  CC, on the other hand, seems born for the limelight, shining on the national stage in The House that Banks Built; with the sweep, he only needs one start here for the Brewers to advance.  The Milwaukee offense is humming at this point, and nothing the Cubs can throw at them – Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood – seems to be able to stop the bleeding.  J.J. Hardy homers four times in the series and is named NLCS MVP.  To the eternal chagrin of Cubs fans, they’re sent home after the four-game sweep, left to talk of curses while the Brewers head to the World Series.

WORLD SERIES: Brewers (90-72) at ANGELS (100-62)
HTHTTH: Brewers in 6.

John Lackey hurls 8 shutout innings and the Angels muster enough offense to squeak out a 2-0 victory against Sabathia in Game 1, but Yovani Gallardo strikes out 11 batters in 6 innings the next night and the Brewers are right back in the series.  Back in Milwaukee, the Angels win Game 4 behind another sterling effort by John Lackey, the Angels’ media darling on the mound, but lose Game 5 in Anaheim to Sabathia, given an “extra” days’ rest after losing Game 1.  The Series heads back to Milwaukee for Game 6, where the Brewers throw Yovani Gallardo against Joe Saunders.  The Brewers pound Saunders, who is removed before he can get out of the third inning.  It’s too late to stop the bleeding, though: the Brewers win 9-5, Salomon Torres closing out the victory in a non-save situation.  Before an exuberant home crowd, the Brewers storm the field, as cameras follow CC Sabathia tossing his teammates around in celebration like so many rag dolls.  Sabathia pitches well but goes 0-1 in the World Series; the MVP goes to Ryan Braun, who finishes 11-23 with 2 homers and 8 RBI, becoming a household name in the process.