When teams suffer a (relatively) quick slew of hope-dashing defeats, the air about the club can turn overwhelmingly and almost irreparably negative. Losses become “expected,” while wins become “lucky,” even from season to season. Optimism is eschewed for compulsory bitterness. This is a very curious but altogether commonplace phenomenon. It’s really just a human coping mechanism. If we never hope for anything, see, our hopes can never be crushed.

To me, Mets fans kind of typify this behavior. The Mets lost a heartbreaking NLCS – on a goddamned curveball, no less – in 2006 and then were embarrassingly ushered out of the playoff hunt in 2007. It was no surprise, then, that when the team stumbled out of the gate in 2008, Mets fans were calling for the head of Willie Randolph and damn near wondering if Shea Stadium should be burned to the ground so that a virgin franchise could be created anew in its place.

Okay, maybe that’s a little dramatic. But fast-forward to August, and while the organization has replaced Randolph with O.G. Jerry Manuel and currently sits just 2 games behind the first-place Phillies, Mets fans are still an extraordinarily fatalistic bunch. They’re not really sure that they like this team, not really sure that they can count on these guys to make them proud. Much of their Queensian vitriol has been spewed at the bullpen, and has been for years. This year – at least amongst my friends who are Mets fans – the hatred has been piled most notably upon one man: Aaron Michael Heilman. All the Mets fans I know totally hate this guy. All he does is blow games. He is the grim reaper in a baseball cap.

Naturally, I got curious. Why, in his age 29 season, has he become the face of ineptitude?

A lifelong Metropolitan, Heilman’s in his sixth season with the big club, and holds a 21-32 record in 290 games (25 starts) with 8 converted saves and 14 blown saves. Blown saves (and wins and losses, to that end) aren’t necessarily the most impartial way to judge a reliever’s success, of course, but the number certainly doesn’t look too good. Nor does the record itself, but such is relief work: you can’t win a game by yourself, but you can damn sure lose one.

He was born on November 12th, 1978 in Logansport, Indiana, a small town of about 20,000 people that sits at the junction of the Wabash and Northern Eel Rivers. Samuel P. Bush – great-grandfather of the esteemed U.S. President – cut his teeth there as a railroad mechanic, and Major League Baseball’s first commissioner, Kensaw Mountain Landis, also hailed from Logansport. Heilman attended the local high school and then went on to pitch for Notre Dame, where he compiled a 43-7 record with a 2.50 ERA in 4 years, including a 15-0 mark in his senior year. Only 14 other Division I collegians have ever won 40 or more games in their career.

Those impressive credentials got the 6′5″ 225lb Heilman picked by the Mets in the first round (18th overall) of the 2001 amateur draft (he’d also been picked in the first round in 2000 – by the Twins – but elected to return for his senior year). He spent only one full year in the minors before making his major league debut in June of 2003, getting a home start against the Marlins in which he was saddled with the loss (thanks to a couple Mets errors, including one by Heilman himself) despite surrendering just 1 earned run in 6 innings. The Mets didn’t finish very well that year (66-95) and neither did Heilman, who finished 2-7 with a 6.75 ERA in 13 starts. He bounced between AAA and the majors in 2004, and the organization began to sour on him as a starter thanks to massive amounts of inconsistency. Despite throwing a one-hitter against the Marlins in early 2005, the Mets made the decision to convert Heilman to a reliever and drop his arm angle to three-quarters rather than overhand. The move seemed to pay off: Heilman finished the year with a sparkling 2.18 ERA and 9.82 K/9 in 46 games for the club, surrendering just 1 home run as a reliever (to Shawn Green).

One of the Mets’ best relievers after 2005, Heilman decided to play winter ball in the Dominican in the offseason with the intention of getting his innings total up and working on his command. When he came back to the team for spring training, he got the impression from the organization that they didn’t really view him as a starter. While the club explored trade options for players like Danys Baez and Julio Lugo – many involving Heilman himself – Heilman dominated in spring training, pitching 17 innings and surrendering just three earned runs. The team stuck him in the bullpen anyways, opting instead to give rotation spots to pitchers the likes of Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano. Heilman was vocally upset with not being given the chance to start, but finished the regular season very well. He pitched well in the post-season too, but as fate would have it, he threw the pitch that Yadier Molina – who hit six home runs all season – homered off of to win the NLDS for the Cardinals and send them to the World Series.

Heilman had minor elbow surgery that winter and came to camp determined to start for a team, and the club again half-heartedly shopped him around. Heilman was neither traded nor given much of a shot to contend for a rotation spot, suffering further insult when he wasn’t given an assigned parking spot during Spring Training.

The right-hander quietly had another very good season in 2007 to wrap up a rather remarkable three-year stint as a reliever. From 2005-2007, Heilman pitched 239 innings and posted a 3.01 ERA, a 7.83 K/9, and a 0.53 HR/9. Quite simply, he was excellent. This can be used to argue one of two opposite points:

A) The Mets were stupid not to let him start over some of their other options
B) The Mets were right to put him in the bullpen where his skills were most effective.

Answering that question doesn’t do the team a heck of a lot of good for 2008. Making $1.2 million for the club this year, Heilman has put up some ugly numbers on the season: he currently sits at 2-7, his worst record since he was starting as rookie in 2003. In 63 games, he has a 5.74 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP; hitters are posting a .262/.359/.426 line off him, and he leads all relievers with 9 hit batters.

Heilman has traditionally thrown two pitches: a sinking fastball and a changeup. In 2007, the fastball was clocking in at a very healthy 94.89mph; his mix of fastballs and changeups was 70/30 to right-handed batters and 60/40 to left-handed batters. Once Rick Peterson was fired this past June, Heilman began throwing his slider again (Peterson apparently coached Heilman not to use it during his tenure with the Mets). Heilman’s been mixing the pitch in to right-handed batters this year, and by all accounts, it’s gone alright: righties are hitting just .207 off the reliever. It’s left-handed hitters that have been the problem for Heilman: in 95 at-bats, lefties are slugging .611, and have 7 of the 9 home runs Heilman’s allowed all year to their credit. They’re murdering him.

His 60/40 mix of fastball/changeup to LHBs is largely unchanged from 2007 to 2008. Both his fastball and changeup appear slightly faster this season, but that could very well be noise in the data, as 2008’s information is much more complete than 2007’s. His horizontal movement chart – courtesy Josh Kalk – is a little strange though. Those changeups look awfully sloppy, and in particular, there appears to be a distinct swath of them on the inside part of the plate, perhaps indicating that Heilman’s been missing down and in to lefties. The numbers back up the picture we’re seeing: Heilman has walked 15 lefties in 95 at-bats versus just 14 righties in 150 at-bats. Going back, though, we see that these numbers don’t historically deviate from what Heilman has always done. In fact, it’s his walks to righties that have been the problem: he walked 6 in 2006 and 9 in 2007, and has already walked 14 in 2008. His walk rate against righties has doubled from last year.

Unless you have a lights-out arsenal, walking guys when you’re a reliever is a really bad idea, especially if you’re on a ballclub that’s prone to removing you in the middle of an inning. This introduces the tricky specter of the Strand Rate. The average Strand Rate for major league relievers with at least 40 IP this year is 75.44%. For every 4 batters you allow to reach base, 3 of them will get left out on the basepaths, either by yourself or one of your fellow relievers. Aaron Heilman’s is 66% on the season, and though he’s got the healthiest K/9 he’s ever had (10.07), this is simply not working for him: one out of every 3 runners that reaches on Heilman is coming around to score, a very significant deviation from the 75% average, especially when you’re a reliever and have little wiggle room.

Heilman has been charged with at least one earned run in 20 of his 63 appearances spanning 18.1 innings, with 14 of those being appearances in which he allowed multiple earned runs. He has walked 12 batters – 6 RHB, 6 LHB – in that time and struck out 17. Of the 42 runs he has surrendered, 33 have been of his own accord. I have no context to indicate how commonplace or rare this is, but I think it’s worth noting that of the 10 baserunners he’s left on base for other pitchers, 9 have scored, 7 at the hands of Scot Schoeneweis, who will probably not be getting a Christmas card from the righty this year. It’s also clear that the team is losing confidence in him: In his first 12 run-allowing appearances, he was yanked three times, but in his last 8, he’s been pulled from the game 6 times. Had Heilman’s successor not allowed any of those runs to score his ERA would come down from 5.74 to 4.48, which isn’t great, but is a lot easier to swallow. This would of course actually underscore how bad Heilman has been.

Four of Heilman’s seven losses have come in the last two and a half weeks, an incredible streak of awfulness. Despite the fact that his successors have largely failed him, they can’t be blamed for putting those runners on in the first place. Heilman’s most damning stat is his 1.46 WHIP: he’s allowed 103 baserunners this year and is walking 4.2 batters per 9 innings. A decrease in ground balls – from 45% to 41.5% – also suggests that he’s been leaving too many pitches up in the zone (contributing to his high home run rate). His lack of control could even explain his higher-than-usual strikeout rate via “effectively wild” syndrome. His BABIP is .335 and his HR/FB is 13.8%, and while one could use those to say that he’s been unlucky, they’d be being kind: you can’t expect to succeed when you’re walking and plunking as many batters as Heilman has been.

There have been rumblings in New York that the boo-birds are starting to get to Heilman, who has complained in the past about his treatment but as I mentioned before, had always succeeded out of the ‘pen. Whether for ineffectiveness or health concerns, the team clearly needs to ease up on Heilman. He’s appeared in 63 games this season, tied for the major league lead. The Mets bullpen as a whole has been used 396 times, the most in the division. The Eddie Kunz callup is a step in the right direction, but despite the fact that he had 27 saves at AA Binghamton, his 38/23 K/BB ratio in 45IP suggests that the 2007 first-round draft pick might not be ready just yet. Billy Wagner returns on Monday, and it’s hard to imagine that the club will do anything drastic before then, opting instead to pray for Wagner’s health and hope that his return shifts everyone in the bullpen pack into their rhythm.

After three years of doing what the team wants instead of what he wants, he’s now doing what no one but his opponents want, which is blowing games for the Mets and angering the team’s most ardent supporters. His -1.48 WPA is in Masa Kobayashi territory. His stuff is still good, but he’s never been happy relieving, and now no one is happy that he’s relieving. If the Mets peter out this season and fail to make the playoffs, the bullpen is going to get blamed, and Heilman is going to represent all that the group failed to accomplish. He remains under the Mets’ control through 2010, but if they can find a team who still likes him enough as a starter to part with a mid-range prospect, they should consider moving him. The team has never put its bullpen at the top of its priority list, and when it comes to keeping Heilman, perhaps they’ll finally relent this winter and ship him off.