Hunter Pence has never really looked like a real major league baseball player to me.  Listed at 6′4″ 220lbs, the blond-haired Texan seems too gangly a mess of arms and legs to ever amount to much on the field, the kind of player that wears his uniform a little too snugly and and habitually sticks his tongue out when he exerts himself.  If you thought he didn’t belong on the ballfield, though, you’d probably be wrong: since being taken by the Houston Astros in the second round of the 2004 draft, Pence has impressed at every stop, going .303/376/.554 from over four minor league seasons before making serious Rookie of the Year noise in his 2007 freshman campaign.

Scouts have tended to disagree on Pence’s ceiling throughout his entire playing career.  The kind of player that does “nothing pretty but everything well,” he projected to some as an average major leaguer and others as a five-tool star.  He made a habit of choking up on the bat during his minor league career, a tendency which stuck out considering Pence’s size and reputation for power (Pence has remarked that even his mother made fun of him for doing so).  He tended to be extremely streaky at the plate.  He had good speed, but had a strange, loping, arm-intensive stride that lacked fluidity.  He had a strong throwing arm, but did a funky stutter-hop before unleashing the ball in a violent, jerky motion.  He wore only one batting glove, on his left hand.  He was quick, but seemed too “long” to be a gold-glove caliber outfielder.  He has a hitch in his swing where he brings his hands way down before coming through the zone, a point that major league pitchers could exploit by busting him in.

Still, Pence impressed everyone in the Astros organization, and batted .571/.647/1.071 in spring training prior to the 2007 season.  Despite his efforts, he was sent down in favor of 27 year old Chris Burke, a nifty little multi-position player who was in his fourth season with the organization and was rumored have both speed and the ability to hit for average.  Neither proved to be true, and the Astros quickly realized the error of their ways: on April 28th of that year, the club announced their plans to call Pence up to the majors and hand him the starting center fielder gig.  He responded by going out of his mind at the plate, hitting .342 through the All-Star Break and finishing the year batting .322 with 9 triples, 17 homers, 11 steals, and 69 RBI despite missing a month with a chip fracture in his right wrist.  Pence’s Astros finished 73-89.

Prior to the 2008 season, the young outfielder earned himself a little bit of unwanted media attention when, on the eve of the club’s first full-squad workout, he accidentally leaped through a sliding glass door on his way to the bathroom, which shattered and left him covered with small lacerations on his hands, knees, and pretty much everywhere else (he was wearing a bathing suit at the time). He received numerous stitches and missed about a week of action, but returned at full-strength on March 3rd and went on to have an excellent spring (.352, 3HR).

Pence started the 2008 regular season in the #2 spot in the order because Kaz Matsui, who was the Astros’ planned #2 hitter, was out of commission with – ugh – a “severe anal fissure.” Pence struggled to a .161 average in the first two weeks of the season and found himself dropped to #7 slot, but got to .250 by the end of April thanks to a 14-for-29 stretch towards the end of the month. Pence went .346/.400/.577 in May but slumped again in June and is currently sporting a mediocre .265/.306/.422 line in 332 at-bats.  As his hitting has gone through peaks and valleys (he was at .311 on May 27th then hit just .200 in June), so has his spot in the order: he’s got at least 50 at bats in the 1, 2, 6, and 7 spots in the order, with most of his time coming at #6 where he’s hitting .297.

Something of a free-swinger, Pence doesn’t care much for walks.  His 5.7% walk rate is on the very low end of the spectrum, alongside fellow contact guys like Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Pierre, and Dustin Pedroia.  For a “dynamic” guy, though, he strikes out a little too often right now, with just 0.29 walks for every K (13th worst in the majors).  It’s not impossible to thrive with a BB/K figure that low – Ryan Braun and Corey Hart’s are lower, though they both have shown more power than Pence and have better contact rates.  Still, his

plate discipline is less than stellar.  30.87% of the balls that Pence swings at are outside of the strike zone; of players with O-Swing figures that high, Pence’s contact rate on balls outside the strike zone – 52.13% – is 3rd worst, behind Torii Hunter, Matt Kemp, and Mike Jacobs.  The book on Pence generally says that he has a predilection towards sliders down and away, a la Alfonso Soriano.  The numbers would seem to give a general thumbs up to that assertion.  All of these rate statistics have carried over from 2007.  His batting average on balls in play last year was .378, though; this year, it’s come down to earth, as has his batting average.  Pence probably won’t finish his career with a .300 batting average.

Pence has also been bad enough on the basepaths this year to warrant a reconsideration of his supposed base-stealing abilities. According to The Book (2007: Tango, Lichtman, Dolphin), a baserunner being caught stealing has a “Runs to End of Inning” value of -0.467 (the average team will score almost a half-run less per inning when a runner is caught stealing), and is the single most detrimental offensive play a baseball player can make. In 2008, Hunter Pence has stolen 5 bases on the season and has been caught 7 times, a .417 success percentage that is far and away the worst among major league regulars who have attempted at least 10 steals. Pence was “only” 31 for 45 in his minor league career (.689), and no major leaguer who stole 20 bases last year had a SB% less than .700 (as a group, 20-steal players in 2007 were .824). Using Run Values and Win Values from The Book, I calculated “Baserunning Run Values” and “Baserunning Win Values” for Major League starters in 2008 based on SB and CS. Here, according to those values, are the 5 most overrated baserunners in the majors (min. 10 SB attempts):

Rk Player TM SB CS BRRV BRWV
1 Pence, Hunter HOU 5 7 -2.394 -0.211
2 DeJesus, David KCR 6 5 -1.285 -0.107
3 Theriot, Ryan CHC 15 8 -1.111 -0.074
4 Granderson, Curtis DET 6 4 -0.818 -0.064
5 Damon, Johnny NYY 13 6 -0.527 -0.024

In short, he’s been killing his team on the basepaths (I’m considering them “overrated” because they get lots of attempts – you can’t call them “the worst” because the truly awful guys just never even try). He’s not getting picked off, either, catchers have simply been throwing him out. In 2008, MLB catchers have averaged a .263 Caught Stealing Percentage; Pence has been thrown out by Chris Coste (.270 in 40 games) Mike Rabelo (.273 in 32 games), Josh Bard (.128 in 37 games), Paul Bako (.318 in 60 games), Raul Chavez (.412 in 19 games), Dioner Navarro (.381in 61 games), and Corky Miller (.500 in 19 games). Navarro is the only catcher on that list who is his team’s primary catcher, and Josh Bard is widely considered to be one of the worst catchers in the majors at throwing out baserunners, so being caught by him is not only detrimental to your team’s success but is in fact borderline insulting. Pence has never stolen 20 bases in his professional career, and it’s almost a guarantee that he won’t accomplish the feat at the major league level. He might never steal 15.  One weird note is that he currently leads major league baseball with 23 infield hits, one ahead of Ichiro Suzuki.  None of these have been bunt hits, so it may stand to reason that he’s been topping off balls and is very good at getting out of the box.  More likely, though, is the theory that Pence has been relatively lucky in this department, and that his batting average should be even lower: he had just 13 last year in over 100 more plate appearances, and only five players had more than 23 infield hits on the season last year (Ichiro was the leader, with 44).  There are usually only 3 or 4 guys per season that have 30+ infield hits, so Pence’s rate is likely not sustainable.

While he may not be a good base stealer, Pence is athletic enough to be a good defensive outfielder. He split time between CF and RF in 2008, but when the club brought Michael Bourn into man center in 2008, Pence was switched permanently to right, a move which seems to have paid off defensively for the Astros. The Astros are tied for the fifth-best fielding percentage in baseball, and after posting an .885 Revized Zone Rating in CF in 2007, Pence has put up a .931 RZR in RF in 2008 and is second among NL right fielders in out-of-zone outs recorded (he’s also got 6 assists and has yet to make an error in 746 innings).  He’s got the pop to play corner outfield, though his 10.3% HR/FB rate could use a little boost.

What Astros fans have in their 25-year old right fielder is a guy who will hit .280 with 25 homers and 10 steals on a regular basis, and should drive in 80-100 runs with the right guys around him.  He’s probably never going to be a legitimate MVP candidate, but should find his way onto a few All-Star squads due to his propensity to run hot and cold (he’ll have years where a big first half makes him a shoe-in).  He’s a youthful talent in an organization that’s still looking for a post-Bagwell/Biggio identity, and his presence and playing style should endear him to a new generation of Astros fans.  At 41-48, the Astros aren’t going to make the playoffs this year, despite strong seasons from Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, and Miguel Tejada.  Their rotation, of which Runelvys Hernandez actually counts himself a member, is a complete joke, and they lack the prospects to make 2009 – or even 2010 – seem like sure things.  With that knowledge, it’s going to be very important for the organization that Pence play like the exciting player that everyone seems to think he has the potential to be.  Smarten up on the basepaths, son.